Vol Expansion

Definition

A market regime characterized by sustained elevation of realized volatility relative to the asset baseline, decoupled from directional bias. Operational gating: median realized vol ≥ 1.5× the asset's normal-window vol AND at least 2 distinct (non-overlapping) 30-day windows with vol ≥ 1.5× baseline (persistence requirement). Descriptive layer (not gating): peak rolling-30-day vol ≥ 3× baseline count, vol-of-vol level, max-DD-window — reported alongside without classifying. Peak/spike behaviour is treated as a modality rather than constitutive (a separate VOL_INSTABILITY failure-mode is the appropriate axis for spike-character regimes; planned for future). VIX-specific: observable as VIX index level above its 90th percentile.